🔥write up. I’m not macro guy and I am ultra short term trader so it doesn’t matter to me as long as Vix stays at least in double digits (Obama market was fucked)
I kinda think we can be in a super long term late stage cycle, in the bubble part if you will…. What are chances that this fucker keeps rallying and then blows off in the beginning of next year when the feds missteps start to appear in cracks and crumbles? I think there’s a chance much greater than zero that we can really blast off and then have a proper 1929 style crash. (Not sure of timeline but I would guess 3-18months? I think whoever the next president was going to be was walking into a ticking time bomb and the “kick the can down the road” was gonna run out of road anyway.
Could be totally wrong and retarded and it’s not actionable (aside from holding longs and maintaining hedges, and blasting calls out on dips)
A real market crash and economic crisis will be a huge gift to democrats for years to come too, so gotta think they wanna see Trump fail hard. Idk, but I feel like I can kinda seriously see something like that play out…
There’s never any reason to not be somewhat long, IMO, unless you have very high signal info or a precise short timeline. I just want to not be fully allocated to positions when so much is uncertain, so there is cash to buy a dip (I don’t ever invest with margin), but I still need to be doing something to beat inflation.
For intraday stuff, the most useful part of knowing the regime is knowing where the real volume and flow will go. In a stock dispersion environment, for example, the S&P will net out, but you need to go out and seek vol to make money trading ofc. I don’t think the traditional ES/NQ intraday stuff is going to be as good as swing trading smaller sectors and stocks, but I’ll have to see how things progress.
I don’t think anything drastic happens with indices - no crash - but dollar/oil movement will be highly volatile going forward, and treasury curve/dxy do induce ES moves when nothing else is going on
🔥write up. I’m not macro guy and I am ultra short term trader so it doesn’t matter to me as long as Vix stays at least in double digits (Obama market was fucked)
I kinda think we can be in a super long term late stage cycle, in the bubble part if you will…. What are chances that this fucker keeps rallying and then blows off in the beginning of next year when the feds missteps start to appear in cracks and crumbles? I think there’s a chance much greater than zero that we can really blast off and then have a proper 1929 style crash. (Not sure of timeline but I would guess 3-18months? I think whoever the next president was going to be was walking into a ticking time bomb and the “kick the can down the road” was gonna run out of road anyway.
Could be totally wrong and retarded and it’s not actionable (aside from holding longs and maintaining hedges, and blasting calls out on dips)
A real market crash and economic crisis will be a huge gift to democrats for years to come too, so gotta think they wanna see Trump fail hard. Idk, but I feel like I can kinda seriously see something like that play out…
There’s never any reason to not be somewhat long, IMO, unless you have very high signal info or a precise short timeline. I just want to not be fully allocated to positions when so much is uncertain, so there is cash to buy a dip (I don’t ever invest with margin), but I still need to be doing something to beat inflation.
For intraday stuff, the most useful part of knowing the regime is knowing where the real volume and flow will go. In a stock dispersion environment, for example, the S&P will net out, but you need to go out and seek vol to make money trading ofc. I don’t think the traditional ES/NQ intraday stuff is going to be as good as swing trading smaller sectors and stocks, but I’ll have to see how things progress.
I don’t think anything drastic happens with indices - no crash - but dollar/oil movement will be highly volatile going forward, and treasury curve/dxy do induce ES moves when nothing else is going on